Betting on the correct score has famously become one of the most exciting football betting markets mainly due to the high odds. It is generally considered as a hard to master market, due to the somewhat higher vig and the volatility of possible results. Although most bettors tend to back the score arbitrarily, usually by thinking their favorite team will beat their rivals with a large margin, sharp bettors are more accustomed to dutching the correct score market in order to limit their risk. Today we will focus on how we can accurately predict the correct score and how we can earn a steady profit out of it. If you are not accustomed to the term Dutching then you can read the first paragraph to get a basic understanding. If you are a seasoned punter, then you can skip it and focus on our correct score prediction formula.
It might feel easy for a punter to predict the winner of a football match. But what if you are looking on various potential winners such as on horse or greyhound races? In cases like these experienced punters share their stake to multiple choices in their attempt to win money from every race. What is amazing is that you manage to get some profit when one of your picks come true.
In the same manner, you can dutch the correct score. You obviously have to bet on more options than the 1-X-2 market, usually around ten but you stand to make an approximate 10 to 15% profit per game. Normally it would require advanced knowledge of mathematics. Alternatively, you can trust a reliable tool like sportstradinglife.com/dutching-calculator that will help you share your total stake on all possible outcomes. Learn how to use it – it is not very difficult and it can help you bet like an expert on correct score prediction.
Correct scores prediction? Really? Is this a type of bet or pure gambling? Believe it or not correct score prediction is not up to blind chance. Every bettor can do that as long as he has some betting experience and the right tools. Some sites with statistics (for example you can check these or trust your own thestatsdontlie.com and a site with expected goals analysis like understat.com.
But even with that help you simply can’t predict the correct score of all the matches of an entire matchday. It is easier to dutch the score on low scoring games. So narrow your search on leagues and teams that don’t score often. This way you will be seeking to win on three to five scores instead of the “usual” nine to ten.
It does simple and it really is an easy way of learning how to dutch the score. It is not in the jurisdiction of Lady Luck. Stats and knowledge will do the trick.
As we already analyzed on our previous expected goals guide, xgoals are one of the most accurate metrics in the service of the punter. With their help, predicting the outcome and the range of the goals that will be scored is a lot easier. They alone can be the answer to the fundamental question “How do you predict the correct score in a football match?”. We can see that with an example on the recent Uefa Champions League final. Tottenham faced Liverpool and judging from the expected goals index (1.05 for the Spurs and 1.09 for the Reds) we would expect a close match and so it was. We placed some test bets and dutched the following correct scores.
We placed a total stake of £100 on these scores and netted a £23 profit as Jordan Henderson lifted the Cup in the Madrid sky.
As you can see, predicting the correct score is not as hard as you might think. And if you choose to dutch the score on a trustworthy bookmaker such as bet365 then you can have the bore draw cashback. In other words, you will get your money back if the selected match ends at 0-0. This could be a further improvement for your bankroll or you can even choose not to back 0-0 and get a cashback on all your bets.
At this point, we have to mention that correct scores prediction is a type of bet that is recommended to be placed after the first 10 to 15 matchdays of each league. Only then can you have a clear picture of the teams you are planning to bet on. In the same manner, you should also avoid betting on the final matchdays due to the team’s motivation. As we all know motivation depends on the teams’ targets, so a team that can’t afford to lose is more likely to play defensively. And it goes without saying that you should also consider elements like injuries, bans, weather conditions and anything else you think can influence a football match.
There are also matches at the end of the season that can be easier to predict. Take for example the Southampton vs Huddersfield clash for Premier League Matchday 38. The final result was 1-1. This was the second most common score for the visitors. Along with the 1-2 it happened 5 times during the period. The most common was 0-1 which occurred 7 times. For the home team 1-1 was the most common score (5 times) and in the second place were the 0-0, 1-2 and 1-3 (4 times each). With those statistics in mind, if we would like to dutch the scores in this match then we would put our money on the following scores.
If you had put £100 on this match and had spread them right you would have earned a £27 profit. This is how the correct scores prediction can work on your behalf. As long as you follow the steps we have mentioned before and are a bit careful so that the bookie doesn’t flag you as an arber and limits your account.
Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a failproof model or strategy in betting. No one can promise you that you will each and every bet you place or that the recommended model comes with no limitations. What is important when dutching the score is to carefully pick your matches and expected scores to increase your possibilities and your bankroll. The fundamental secret is to stay calm and stick to your plan. Even if you lose you have to examine what went wrong. If you feel that the match stats went according to your prediction then you shouldn’t stray from your game. If both teams performed in a manner that was different to your original estimation then you should calculate what went off, even if you predicted the score correctly.
You also need to study the match in depth so you can eliminate some options. Let’s say you want to include Cardiff on your bet, and the Welsh are travelling to Newcastle. You need to consider that Cardiff are not so effective when playing on the road. Additionally, the Magpies have an average attacking ratio (let’s say it is 1,8). Now you can focus your play and bet on a smaller range of correct scores (for example 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0).
It’s not quite what you’d call a correct score strategy, but more like a road-sign showing you the way to get some money from a somewhat risky market.
Conservative bettors usually press the cash-out just when they ensure some profit. Especially in volatile markets such as this one, things can get a little bit jumpy. Usually, they will cash-out at half-time in pre-game bets. The other school of thought sees the cash-out as a necessity only if you want to limit your losses. In the same manner, you should be alarmed and just when you are starting to lose more than 20% of your bet you should cash out.
Understandably, correct score dutching is by default one of the most advanced types of bets. So in our opinion, you shouldn’t restrict yourself in any trend. Dogmatic opinions are not permitted in betting meaning that your strategy should be dictated by the match itself. Only then can you feel sure about his decision.
The general idea is the same as in pre-game markets. Only in this case, the odds are far more volatile and as the match progresses a goal could be scored just before you manage to place all your bets. But on the other hand dutching in-play, in this case, means fewer choices, less risk and more accurate predictions. Let’s see this in an example with a match that is deadlocked at 0-0 during half-time. Given that you are watching the match, you have a clear picture of where it is going. So you can choose the correct scores you want to cover depending on what you saw in the first 45 minutes. You feel that 0-0 is out of the question as the home team is pressing really hard and it looks like scoring a goal is a matter of time. Combining the match so far in addition to xgoals statistics, you are now ready to bet on three possible correct scores(1-0, 2-0, 2-1).
There are many factors to be examined concerning correct score prediction. There is one that is not entirely failproof, but it does come true most of the times. Trust your gut. If you are watching the game and if you know the opponents it is easier to predict the final result with accuracy.
Tip: In almost every league, every year there is a team or two (in some leagues even more) with huge offensive problems. Both at home or on the road matches. As you can realise the range is significantly increasing. Just tick the match and choose in advance which is the right moment to place your bets. An ideal moment is when the odds are satisfying and by that, we mean somewhere close to 8.00 – 12.00. Don’t expect and do not chase “crazy” odds like 35.00 or 40.00. We are still talking about betting and not winning the lottery.
Extra Tip: Trust the bookies. While the match is in progress check the lines of goals. If for example the score is 0-0 and the line is at over 1.5 goals at 1.75 odds then try to cover all the possible scores (1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2). Watching the match will help you get an even better understanding of the teams.