Lay the draw is probably the oldest and most preferred exchanged betting strategy. It’s a rather simple strategy and that is why it is used by professional punters and also rookies. Just because this strategy is used massively and for many years, the real question is if it is still an effective strategy nowadays, or the bookmakers managed to counter it. Does lay the draw still work? There isn’t an actual answer to this question. Perhaps you can’t use lay the draw for a living, but still, it is an efficient strategy. In this guide, you will find the strategy lay the draw explained in the most detailed way possible. But if you want to increase your bankroll the most important things are not strategies or tips. Your self-discipline is will do most of the work and our guide will reassure the result.
Lay the draw football strategy as we said before it is a rather simple procedure and thus a popular betting strategy. But what is lay the draw? The general idea is to avoid the draw. If you consider that draw is confirmed at approximately 30% of the matches, that means that punters have a 70% winning probability. Pretty impressive you might think, but numbers alone usually don’t give the full picture.
The concept is to pick matches with clear favourites or high scoring teams. In a match with a clear home favorite, the odds will be like 1.76-4.00-5.30(1X2). So the odds for the lay the draw will be at 4.10. In games like these your exposure will be much higher than usual, but do not forget that you have an estimated 75% to win your stake. Favourite teams playing at home won’t settle at a draw with a minor opponent.
Same thing with offensive teams. In most of the cases, those type of teams simply can’t defend their posts. So the draw possibility is much less than every other match.
You should avoid this type of bet when the draw is a suitable result for both teams (obviously) and if there isn’t much difference between them.
Now you have the most important information you need and you can proceed to trade. But if you feel that you need something more about lay the draw tips and more sophisticated strategies, you can continue reading our guide.
If we ask you which is the most common draw result you probably will answer 0-0. It’s not. Not the current season anyway. Judging from all major league the most common score for a draw is the 1-1(12% or 4.333 out of 36.011 matches). Furthermore, 1-1 is the most common result in general. That’s why this strategy is popular enough for traders. At least to those who prefer to lay the draw with insurance. It is not much of insurance though. Because it will decrease your profit and it won’t cover other draw scorelines such as 2-2 or even a sterile, boring and goalless 0-0.
Another lay the draw with insurance strategy, kind of conservative one. Again you pick a match with a clear favourite and you expect to verify it on the field. And just because you want to feel sure you place a bet at 0-0. Remember that it is your insurance bet so the amount off money should be just enough to cover a potential loss. It doesn’t have to be at the exchange. You can seek it at your bookmaker if you can find it in better odds.
Probably the best – at least in our eyes – lay the draw strategy. Mostly recommended for the apprentices to trading because you don’t have to make many or significant decisions while your bet is on. The most important benefit of this strategy is that even if the underdog scores, the odds will drop low enough to open your exit window. Lay the draw at half time strategy just needs a tie-breaker goal to be successful. You only need to have watched the first half or pick teams who have a flair to late goals.
Pretty much in the same manner as the previous strategy, but more like trusting your instincts or your knowledge about football and trading. Watching the match and having access to in-play stats is, of course, crucial here. It will determine your entry point. If for example, the favourite team are trying their best but still no goals scored yet, you only need a couple of changes to trigger your trading. Or maybe a close match until that point shifts pace and one of the rivals seems more eager to win than before. Again you have your entry point. Just make sure that the odds are acceptable from you and there is enough money to trade.
Just imagine that laid the draw at 2004/2005 UEFA Champions League Final. Liverpool was facing Milan in Istanbul. At halftime, the Italian side was 3-0 ahead. The pregame average odds for the draw were at 3.00. During that time the draw odds could be around 9 or something similar to that. And your profits near 90% of the total amount. A good time to trade won’t you think? Judging from the final result it was. Because when the Reds started their epic counterattack the odds dropped significantly and there was no value. And in the end, the bet was lost.
You can’t find a golden rule applying for all cases, so in that case, we will take for granted the practice that experienced traders usually carry out. It has no value to exit at the first goal, it’s not trading to wait until the end.
Since we are not fortune tellers or don’t have any of them at our service we have to follow the lead of the experienced. There is an “exit window” in every match. And it is defined only from the winning rate. If it is more than 90% is accepted. Otherwise, you’ll probably settle with a red screen or act as a common gambler and you’ll wait for the final whistle to see if you won.
The most common mistake is when you are trying to apply this strategy – or any other strategy – to every much that you think it matches your criteria. In days like any given Saturday, there are plenty of matches with a trading perspective. You are not obliged to trade in all of them. An experienced and thus wise punter will pick only those which will give him greater profit. Be that punter!
Second thing is that you have to realise that trading is different than betting. Trading is all about taking advantage of the leverage of the markets. The pressure is higher and it can only be compared to the one at dealing rooms of banks and investment companies. But then again that separates the boys from men. So another common mistake is when the underdog scores, the odds are remaining the same or even bigger so there is no opportunity to trade. No need to panic here. Stick to your plan till the end. Panic is the worse advisor in any case. Remember that even the best lay the draw system could fail.
Many punters settle their bets just when the favourite team scores. They seem rather satisfied with an earning close to 20 to 30% of their potential profit. Let us say it once more. Don’t be that punter. Simply because in the long term you will lose. You should be racing your winners long and only cutting your losers short.
And finally, only trade in matches with good liquidity. You might think that great chances are lying at Romanian Liga 1. Even if they do it makes no difference if there are other punters that share the same feeling. Don’t get involved in matches with less than £100k matched pre-game.
And now that you have learned – almost – everything you needed to know about the lay to draw strategies, it’s time to take your first steps in trading. Given of course that you have already an account in exchange (if you don’t you can find the one for you in our detailed reviews here). Next step is to select the leagues you can implement your trading skills. Switzerland is, for example, a great league. Actually, it has the whole package. High scoring games and clear favourites. In that manner, Premier League, Bundesliga and Primera Division, of course, will do the job just fine. Nordic championships could also be added to that list. On the other hand do avoid minor leagues, unless of course you know the teams very well and you can trust them with your money.